by Dr. Rafael Fonseca
June 25, 2020
The headlines are alarming. Arizona is seeing a spike in coronavirus cases, and that’s prompting understandable concern in the state. But though COVID-19 is a serious situation, fear should not drive our response. A thoughtful consideration of the data is critical as officials consider next steps in response to the pandemic and as individuals decide how to go about their lives.
First, here’s where Arizona stands as of today. The state’s reported COVID-19 cases stand at close to 60,000, with 1,795 new cases on Wednesday, and more than 1,463 deaths. Make no mistake, those are alarming numbers. To be sure, Arizona’s reported new cases have spiked in recent weeks, prompting questions of whether this is the result of a relaxing in the state’s stay-at-home order.
Those are fair questions to ask, but conclusions about next steps in state and local policy shouldn’t be reached without considering other data that provides context about Arizona’s COVID-19 cases, the severity of the pandemic, and the capacity to care for those who are affected. Let’s take a look:
Those facts are important to bear in mind when considering the severity of the outbreak in Arizona today, whether the state has capacity to treat those who are stricken with COVID-19, and how the state should react to prevent the spread of the virus.
Apart from the data about known cases and utilization of our hospitals, policymakers should also take a look at other factors that could be contributing to the rise in cases. Governor Ducey’s stay-at-home order expired on May 15. Yet Google mobility data shows that Arizonans have not significantly increased their activity since the expiration of the order. That is not to say there is no reckless behavior, as we have all seen places of recreation where there is no social distancing and minimal use of masks.
It could be that Arizonans are being lax about social distancing, going to packed bars and restaurants, and attending large gatherings. That certainly could be driving the spike in cases. It is also possible that Arizonans are increasingly staying inside due to the hotter summer weather. And if younger Arizonans are the source of more cases, that would explain the lower mortality rate.
That’s a lot of ifs, but that’s also part of the problem the country faces. Data about increasing COVID-19 cases can be scary, and stats are stoking fear in the public. Public knowledge of the facts is more important than ever. Clear, measurable criteria will allow the public to know whether they are taking adequate precautions or not, whether public safety measures are sufficient or need to be increased, and whether their elected officials are acting responsibly. From what we know, continued social distancing and universal use of masks will help to mitigate transmission of the virus. We should all wear a mask, as a personal choice!
Reopening Arizona—and all of America—in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic is a matter of protecting lives and livelihoods. Our leaders must consider the wide-ranging effects of their decisions on our country’s physical and economic health—both are intertwined and have taken a beating during this crisis. As we face the challenge of safely reopening our country, we must keep these crucial guidelines at the forefront. If we fail to do so, the havoc wreaked by COVID-19 will only be the beginning.
So what is one to do:
– Avoid large crowds and gatherings.
– Stay smart—distance, wear masks, hand hygiene.
– Nuances and details are important.
– Never discount AZ!
Anyway, my hypotheses, take them or hate them, and I love this state!
Dr. Rafael Fonseca is a visiting fellow at the Goldwater Institute.
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